Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.005255 0.005552 0.005858 0.006198 0.006565 0.006951 0.007387
2024-12-15 0.004728 0.005166 0.005640 0.006192 0.006821 0.007517 0.008352
2024-12-22 0.004368 0.004880 0.005451 0.006139 0.006951 0.007886 0.009055
2024-12-29 0.004056 0.004609 0.005239 0.006018 0.006964 0.008088 0.009543
2025-01-05 0.003813 0.004393 0.005069 0.005922 0.006983 0.008278 0.010007
2025-01-12 0.003662 0.004274 0.004999 0.005934 0.007124 0.008614 0.010663
2025-01-19 0.003415 0.004024 0.004755 0.005711 0.006949 0.008531 0.010756
2025-01-26 0.003311 0.003942 0.004711 0.005734 0.007085 0.008850 0.011399
2025-02-02 0.003281 0.003949 0.004776 0.005896 0.007408 0.009430 0.012437
2025-02-09 0.003151 0.003823 0.004664 0.005819 0.007402 0.009558 0.012836
2025-02-16 0.003055 0.003736 0.004599 0.005798 0.007467 0.009784 0.013390
2025-02-23 0.002957 0.003641 0.004517 0.005750 0.007491 0.009950 0.013858
2025-03-02 0.002918 0.003625 0.004540 0.005848 0.007730 0.010444 0.014877
2025-03-09 0.002841 0.003554 0.004489 0.005841 0.007815 0.010717 0.015571
2025-03-16 0.002754 0.003468 0.004412 0.005792 0.007836 0.010890 0.016110
2025-03-23 0.002651 0.003356 0.004295 0.005680 0.007756 0.010900 0.016376
2025-03-30 0.002562 0.003260 0.004196 0.005591 0.007704 0.010950 0.016709
2025-04-06 0.002511 0.003215 0.004168 0.005602 0.007804 0.011246 0.017491
2025-04-13 0.002393 0.003072 0.003997 0.005396 0.007558 0.010968 0.017225
2025-04-20 0.002353 0.003039 0.003979 0.005417 0.007669 0.011279 0.018052
2025-04-27 0.002356 0.003064 0.004046 0.005568 0.007991 0.011958 0.019623
2025-05-04 0.002291 0.002992 0.003970 0.005496 0.007950 0.012019 0.020016
2025-05-11 0.002244 0.002945 0.003928 0.005476 0.007993 0.012224 0.020708